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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2014-10-31 09:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 310836 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)

2014-10-31 09:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...VANCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 31 the center of VANCE was located near 10.5, -101.0 with movement WSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 5

2014-10-31 09:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 310836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...VANCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 101.0W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST- SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 5

2014-10-31 09:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 310835 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.0W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.0W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 100.6W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.1N 101.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 9.8N 103.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 10.0N 104.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 106.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 101.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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