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Hurricane VANCE Graphics
2014-11-02 16:05:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Nov 2014 14:39:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Nov 2014 15:04:58 GMT
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-11-02 15:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021437 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 Satellite images show that Vance has continued to strengthen this morning. The cyclone has a cold cloud-topped CDO, with some overshooting tops near the center, surrounded by banding features. Objective ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS now support an intensity of 70 kt, which makes the system a hurricane. Vance has fairly strong upper-level outflow over all but the eastern portion of the circulation. Additional strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours, and the official intensity forecast is near the high end of the numerical guidance in the short term. By 36 hours, the dynamical guidance shows a large increase in southwesterly shear due to strong upper-level winds north of 15N latitude, and this should halt any additional strengthening. Vance is expected to weaken rapidly on days 2 and 3 of the forecast period, and is likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by day 4. This is similar to the previous official wind speed forecast. Latest center fixes indicate that the hurricane is now moving northwestward, or 310/13 kt. Vance is expected to round the western periphery of a mid-level ridge and turn northward to north-northeastward toward a trough over the southwestern United States during the next couple of days. By late in the forecast period, the cyclone is likely to become a shallow system that will turn to the left within the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 11.9N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-02 15:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 7:00 AM PST Sun Nov 2 the center of VANCE was located near 11.9, -107.5 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 14
2014-11-02 15:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021437 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 ...VANCE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 107.5W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H......AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-11-02 15:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021437 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 107.5W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 107.5W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 107.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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