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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-10-31 03:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 Vance has strengthened a little this evening. Infrared satellite images indicate that deep convection has increased slightly to the northeast of the center and in a band on the south and east sides of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS supports raising the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Southerly to southwesterly shear and dry air in the low- to mid-levels of the atmosphere are currently affecting Vance, and these conditions are expected to persist for about another day. Therefore, only slow strengthening is predicted during that time. Over the weekend, however, the atmosphere is expected to moisten near the storm while the shear lessens, providing a better opportunity for more significant strengthening. By the end of the forecast period, the global models show a sharp increase in southwesterly shear, which should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the SHIPS model and the intensity model consensus. The storm has been moving slowly west-southwestward during the past 6 to 12 hours. A mid-level ridge located to the north and northwest of Vance is expected to steer the cyclone west-southwestward to westward during the next day or two. After that time, a gradual turn to the north and then northeast is forecast as the ridge weakens and shifts eastward in response to an approaching large trough. Although the models are in agreement in the large-scale steering pattern, there is a fair amount of spread in where Vance turns northward. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one for the first 72 hours to be in better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 10.8N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 9.9N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-10-31 03:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 30 the center of VANCE was located near 10.8, -101.3 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 4
2014-10-31 03:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 310232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 ...VANCE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 101.3W ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-10-31 03:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 310232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 11(32) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 31(46) 2(48) X(48) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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