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Hurricane VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2014-11-02 15:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021437 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 31(51) 12(63) X(63) X(63) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics

2014-11-02 10:05:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Nov 2014 08:43:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Nov 2014 09:04:54 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)

2014-11-02 09:41:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...VANCE INTENSIFYING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 1:00 AM PST Sun Nov 2 the center of VANCE was located near 10.9, -106.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 13

2014-11-02 09:41:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020841 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 ...VANCE INTENSIFYING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 106.5W ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND VANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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