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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-01 03:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 31 the center of VANCE was located near 9.5, -101.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 8
2014-11-01 03:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...VANCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 101.8W ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH VANCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 8
2014-11-01 03:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 101.8W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 101.8W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 9.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 110.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 108.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 101.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics
2014-10-31 21:56:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2014 20:56:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2014 20:55:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-10-31 21:55:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 312055 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 Vance has a peculiar structure this afternoon. The central convection has become somewhat skeletal with the center exposed at times, although there are still plenty of curved banding features in the outer portion of the circulation. The culprit for this decrease in convection appears to be an influx of dry air moving into the central region of the tropical cyclone around the west and south sides. Dvorak estimates still support an intensity of about 40 kt. Since the dry air is close to the center now, it will probably take some time for this air to mix out. Thus little change is shown in the short term. Afterward, models insist that the large-scale environment will become favorable for strengthening over the next three days or so. Strong southwesterly shear is anticipated for the beginning of next week, which will probably cause Vance to weaken significantly at long range. There has not been much change to the guidance suite, with the majority of the guidance still showing Vance as a hurricane in a few days. The NHC forecast is therefore very close to the previous one, and generally lies between the intensity consensus and the SHIPS model. It seems that finally the motion of Vance has become more clear, now moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. This general motion is expected through tonight due to a ridge over the eastern Pacific. This ridge should move eastward over the next few days, steering the cyclone more westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance is then forecast to turn northward and then north- northeastward ahead of a trough moving over Baja California. Subtle differences in the speed of the trough are leading to increased model spread at long range, with the faster ECMWF preferring a more north-northeast track, compared to the slower GFS solution of a sharper northeastward turn. The NHC forecast is adjusted westward at day 3 and beyond, and is close to a dynamical model consensus excluding the UKMET model, which has an improbable forecast due to a seemingly spurious interaction with a weak ITCZ disturbance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 9.5N 101.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 9.3N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 9.6N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 10.5N 106.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 11.7N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 19.8N 108.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 23.5N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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