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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)

2014-10-31 21:54:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...VANCE NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 31 the center of VANCE was located near 9.5, -101.4 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 7

2014-10-31 21:54:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 312054 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...VANCE NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 101.4W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 7

2014-10-31 21:54:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 312054 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 101.4W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 101.4W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 101.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 9.3N 102.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 9.6N 104.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.7N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 108.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.5N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 101.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2014-10-31 21:54:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 312054 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) 2(43) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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