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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 9
2014-11-01 09:43:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010843 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 ...VANCE ADVANCING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.4N 102.7W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 9
2014-11-01 09:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 102.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 102.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 9.7N 104.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.5N 106.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.2N 110.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 102.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics
2014-11-01 04:05:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 02:33:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 03:04:59 GMT
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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-11-01 03:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 Most of the available intensity analyses indicate that Vance has weakened since the previous advisory and is barely holding on to tropical cyclone status at that. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt, 30 kt, and 33 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively. Visible and microwave fix positions over the past few hours suggest that Vance has been moving slowly westward or just south of due west, so the initial motion estimate is now 270/05 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. A general westward motion should continue through Saturday, followed by a turn to the west-northwest and northwest on Sunday as Vance moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. As a mid-tropospheric trough approaches Baja California on Monday, Vance is forecast to move northward, followed by a turn and acceleration toward the northeast on Tuesday. The latest model guidance is in better agreement for this forecast cycle and is more tightly packed as well. Therefore, the new NHC forecast track is basically just an update of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the TVCE consensus track model. Although the convective cloud pattern of Vance has eroded significantly during the past several hours, a small burst of deep convection has recently developed over the center. Overall, however, the cyclone has maintained a well-developed low-level wind field. Dry mid-level air that has been plaguing Vance from the outset is expected to give way to a more moist environment in the 12-48 hour time period while the vertical wind shear remains rather low at less than 5 kt. The result is that Vance is forecast to gradually strengthen and become a hurricane by late Sunday. By 72 hours and beyond, southwesterly vertical shear is expected to sharply increase ahead of the aforementioned trough, causing the cyclone to rapidly weaken. However, it is worth noting that Vance could reach a higher peak intensity between the 48- and 72-hour periods before the weakening trend begins. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and is a blend of the SHIPS and HWRF intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 9.5N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 9.5N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 10.0N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 16.5N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.1N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 24.3N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-11-01 03:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 19(37) 1(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 18(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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