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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 6

2014-10-31 15:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311438 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 There hasn't been a lot of significant change with the structure of Vance during the past several hours. While the central convection has weakened some, the convection associated with a banding feature on the east side has increased. Dvorak estimates are similar to 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 40 kt. Vance continues to struggle with southwesterly shear and dry air. Most of the models, however, suggest that the shear should abate over the weekend, with increasing moisture and upper-level divergence expected as well. The latest model guidance generally shows a higher peak intensity, and the NHC forecast is now a bit higher at 48-72 hours. After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is forecast, which will likely cause weakening while the cyclone approaches Mexico. The center has not been easy to track with this cyclone, but the latest microwave and visible satellite data suggest it has been creeping toward the south-southwest. A ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to move eastward over the next few days, steering the cyclone more steadily west-southwestward by late today, westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance is then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward ahead of a trough moving over Baja California. While the models are in good agreement on the overall track, there remains some spread in the timing of the turn toward Mexico. The guidance is generally faster than the last cycle, so the updated NHC forecast follows that trend. Overall the forecast is also little east of the previous one, mostly because of the initial motion and position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 10.1N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 9.7N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 9.6N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake

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Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)

2014-10-31 15:37:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...VANCE MOVING ERRATICALLY WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 31 the center of VANCE was located near 10.1, -100.8 with movement SSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 6

2014-10-31 15:37:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 311437 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...VANCE MOVING ERRATICALLY WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 100.8W ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST. VANCE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST- SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2014-10-31 15:37:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 311437 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 3(27) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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