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Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics
2014-11-01 15:49:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 14:48:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 14:48:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-11-01 15:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011447 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 The structure of Vance continues to improve, albeit slowly. The first-light visible images show that the center is in the northern portion of the central dense overcast, with recent microwave data suggesting the development of a more solid inner core. A blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support raising the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Vance has ample opportunity to strengthen for about the next 2 days while it remains over very warm waters with low shear conditions. Little change is made to the forecast intensity during that time, which is just a bit higher than the model consensus. Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase markedly, with rather hostile conditions expected while the cyclone approaches Mexico. Guidance has trended sharply downward at days 3-5, and the latest NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. Vance is moving about 280/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to move much faster toward the west-northwest later today, and then move northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of 110W by day 2. Similar to the last advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered but has shifted westward during the first 2 days. Thus, the updated NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one through 48 hours. After that time, the mid-level trough is expected to steer Vance to the north and north-northeast on days 3 and 4. Guidance is coming into better agreement on this solution, with the 06z GFS having trended left of its 00z solution, and no changes were made to the official NHC forecast. While the latest NHC prediction still shows Vance moving onshore of the coast of Mexico around day 5, it is a distinct possibility that the low-level center will remain offshore due to the cyclone decoupling from the mid-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 9.6N 103.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 10.2N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 12.5N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 18.1N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-11-01 15:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 6(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 8( 8) 18(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-01 15:47:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 the center of VANCE was located near 9.6, -103.2 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 10
2014-11-01 15:47:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 011447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 ...VANCE IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 103.2W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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