je.st
news
Tag: vance
Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics
2014-11-01 22:09:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 20:44:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 21:05:08 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-11-01 21:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012043 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 Vance appears to be gradually organizing in satellite imagery. The central convection has increased a bit over the past few hours, and convective banding has also increased in coverage. However, satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The increase in convective coverage is consistent with a gradual moistening of the near-storm environment as seen in the SHIPS model analyses, and conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening during the next 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and shows Vance reaching hurricane status in about 2 days. After that time, the shear increases dramatically, which should result in quick weakening to remnant low status by day 4. The NHC prediction is close to the Decay-SHIPS model and a little above the intensity consensus through the period. The initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Vance is feeling the effects of a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north. Vance should move generally west-northwestward through 24 hours and then turn northward by 48 hours as it moves between the ridge and an amplifying mid/upper-level trough digging southward over the southwestern United States and Baja California. Late in the period, a weakening Vance is expected to turn north-northeastward as the cyclone decouples in the strong shear, leaving a remnant low drifting erratically by the end of the forecast period. The guidance has trended faster in the short term this cycle, and generally shows a broader recurvature through 48 hours. The NHC forecast has been trended in that direction, but lies a little east of the multi-model consensus at 36 and 48 hours. After that time, the spread in the guidance increases. The ECMWF and UKMET models both show Vance interacting to some degree with a disturbance moving northward around the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. In particular, the ECMWF shows Vance weakening and then merging with the other system, resulting in a track far to the south of the rest of the models. The GFS remains farther north and east, but shows a westward turn by day 5. The NHC forecast late in the period has been slowed down and shows the remnant low meandering between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes at days 4 and 5. However, this forecast is east of the multi-model consensus out of respect for continuity, and confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period is quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 10.1N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 10.8N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 12.0N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 15.2N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 18.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-01 21:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE SLOWLY ORGANIZING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 the center of VANCE was located near 10.1, -104.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 11
2014-11-01 21:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 ...VANCE SLOWLY ORGANIZING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 104.4W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-11-01 21:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 012033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.8N 106.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 108.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 111.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 104.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] next »