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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-11-02 03:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 Vance's convective organization has improved considerably since the previous advisory with a central dense overcast feature having developed during the past few hours. In addition, recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave satellite imagery indicate that a small precursor eye feature with a diameter 10-12 nmi has developed. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on consensus satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion estimate remains 290/11 kt. For the next 24 hours or so, Vance is expected to move west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north. After that, a turn to the north is forecast as the cyclone moves around the ridge and ahead of an approaching mid-tropospheric trough that will be moving across Baja California in the 48-72 hour time frame. By late in the forecast period, Vance is expected to weaken rapidly, with the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling. The remnant low is forecast to meander off of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern tip of Baja California. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. The mid-level moisture has apparently increased based on the recent development of significant inner-core convection. With such low vertical shear conditions and the aforementioned eye-like feature, rapid intensification is a very distinct possibility during the next 24-36 hours. The NHC official intensity forecast has been increased above the previous advisory forecast through 48 hours, which is above the intensity consensus model ICON and is about midway between the GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts. After that, the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory due to expected strong southwesterly vertical shear conditions of at least 35-40 kt, which should result in rapid weakening of Vance and degeneration into a remnant low on Days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 10.2N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 11.2N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 16.0N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 18.8N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.0N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 22.0N 108.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-11-02 03:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 26(36) 1(37) X(37) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) CLIPPERTON IS 34 2 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-02 03:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 the center of VANCE was located near 10.2, -105.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 12
2014-11-02 03:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 ...VANCE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 105.4W ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND VANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 12
2014-11-02 03:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 110.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.8N 109.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 108.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 108.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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