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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 10
2014-11-01 15:47:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 011447 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 103.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 103.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.2N 104.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.5N 109.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.1N 109.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 103.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics
2014-11-01 10:10:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 08:45:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 09:05:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-11-01 09:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010844 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 Vance's structure has been improving since the last advisory. A cluster of deep convection has developed near the center, and more defined curved bands are forming on the outer edges of the circulation. The maximum winds are held at 35 kt based on a consensus of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The first three days of the forecast are fairly straightforward. Vance is expected to turn west-northwestward later today, accelerate northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of 110W by day 2, and curve toward the north on day 3. The track guidance remains tightly clustered but has shifted westward after 36 hours. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one from 36 to 72 hours. While Vance turns northward, light vertical shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moistening mid-level troposphere should allow the storm to reach hurricane strength in 2-3 days. This part of the forecast closely follows the SHIPS, HWRF, and Florida State Superensemble guidance. The forecast is a little more complex after day 3. Once Vance begins to recurve, it will encounter southwesterly shear that increases from 20-25 kt on day 3 to well over 40 kt on days 4 and 5. This environment is likely to cause the cyclone to decouple, with the mid-level circulation being sheared off toward Mexico and the low-level circulation being left behind south of the Baja California peninsula. While the operational GFS brings Vance to the coast of Mexico in 96 hours, the parallel run of GFS and the ECMWF model have much slower and weaker solutions and do not bring the surface center to the Mexican coast. As additional support for this scenario, most of the GFS and European ensemble members show Vance lingering or even dissipating offshore. At this time, the operational GFS is considered an outlier solution, and the NHC track forecast is closer to a blend of the European and parallel GFS models. Due to the shear, Vance is expected to weaken rapidly after day 3, possibly becoming a remnant low near or offshore the coast of Mexico by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 9.4N 102.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 9.7N 104.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 10.5N 106.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 11.6N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 13.2N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 17.1N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.5N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 23.5N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-11-01 09:43:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010843 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 15(42) 1(43) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-01 09:43:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE ADVANCING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 the center of VANCE was located near 9.4, -102.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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