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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-09-24 22:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 242048 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) VIEQUES PR 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAINT THOMAS 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SAINT CROIX 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 11
2019-09-24 22:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 242048 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 65.8W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight, with this motion continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours, wind gusts of tropical-storm force have been reported in portions of the Virgin Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-09-24 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 242048 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.6N 65.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 64.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.9N 63.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.2N 61.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 65.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-24 19:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 17:45:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:31:54 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-24 19:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE CENTER REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE WEST... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Karen was located near 17.5, -66.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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