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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 8

2016-09-16 10:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160833 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 Water vapor satellite imagery indicates that Karl is moving directly toward the base of a mid-/upper-level trough while being affected by at least 20 kt of westerly shear. A recent SSMIS microwave pass showed that the deep convection remains displaced to the northeast of the center. Since the structure of the cyclone has not changed since the last advisory, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The SSMIS data indicated that the center has moved a little north of previous position estimates, and the initial motion is now 280/11 kt. Karl may gain a little more latitude during the next 12-24 hours, but after that time a strong subtropical ridge is expected to force the cyclone to move south of due west or possibly west- southwestward between 36-48 hours. Once it reaches the western portion of the ridge and intensifies, Karl is likely to again gain some latitude, turning west-northwestward by days 4 and 5. The track models all agree on this scenario and keep Karl well to the east and northeast of the Leeward Islands during the five-day forecast period. Mainly because of the adjustment in the initial position, the new NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous forecast, and it lies closest to an average of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Strong to moderate vertical shear is expected to persist for the next 24-36 hours, and little to no change in strength is anticipated during that time. Even after 36 hours, Karl will be moving through a dry environment over the central tropical Atlantic, but lower shear and warming sea surface temperatures could allow for at least gradual strengthening. The intensity models have trended a little bit higher at the end of the forecast period, and the new NHC forecast shows Karl potentially reaching hurricane intensity by day 5. This forecast is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM models. The initial 12-ft sea radii have been expanded considerably on this advisory based on recent altimeter wave height data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 18.3N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 18.7N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.7N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 18.3N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 17.7N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 17.6N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 19.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 21.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)

2016-09-16 10:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 16 the center of KARL was located near 18.3, -33.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 8

2016-09-16 10:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160833 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 ...KARL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 33.4W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1870 MI...3005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 33.4 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west- southwestward motion is possible Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2016-09-16 10:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 160833 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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