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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 9

2016-09-16 17:05:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161504 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 ...LITTLE CHANGE WITH KARL WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 34.3W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1810 MI...2910 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 34.3 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west- southwestward motion is possible Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km), primarily on the northeast side of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 9

2016-09-16 16:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161451 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 Karl remains a sheared tropical cyclone this morning with all of its deep convection in the northeastern quadrant due to shear related to its interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough. The initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt for this advisory, a compromise between lower Dvorak estimates and higher, but noisy, scatterometer values. Vertical shear is expected to decrease in about 36 hours, and, despite a somewhat dry environment, warming sea surface temperatures should allow for at least gradual strengthening. The intensity models continue to trend higher at the end of the forecast period, and the official forecast follows this trend. This forecast is remains close to the SHIPS and LGEM models. The center of Karl has become a little distorted due to the shear and convection, but it still seems to be moving about 280/11. Karl is forecast to turn more to the west and south-of-west this weekend as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. However, the current interaction of Karl with the mid- to upper-level trough has not been well forecast, and Karl probably will not get as far to the south as expected yesterday. In a few days, the storm should move to the west-northwest and eventually more to northwest around day 5 as it reaches the edge of the ridge. The new forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, plus their respective ensemble means, ending up a little north of the previous NHC prediction at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 18.4N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.5N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.7N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 18.3N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 20.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 22.5N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2016-09-16 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN

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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 9

2016-09-16 16:50:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 161450 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 30SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 36.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.9N 41.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.3N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 34.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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