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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 10
2016-09-16 22:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 162045 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 ...KARL FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 35.6W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 35.6 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-09-16 22:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 162045 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-09-16 22:45:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 162045 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 35.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 30SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 35.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 35.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 37.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N 39.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 45.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 35.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-16 17:18:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 14:51:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 15:08:40 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-16 17:05:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LITTLE CHANGE WITH KARL WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 16 the center of KARL was located near 18.4, -34.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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