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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-09-17 04:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 170249 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-09-17 04:48:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 170248 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 37.0W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 37.0W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 36.4W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 38.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N 44.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 46.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 37.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-16 23:13:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 20:47:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 21:07:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-09-16 22:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 162046 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 Convection is quite strong in the northeastward quadrant of Karl, although the center has recently become exposed due to moderate-to-strong westerly shear. There has been little change to the overall satellite presentation in the past several hours, and the initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt. A continuation of the shear is forecast to keep Karl from strengthening much over the next day or two. This shear is forecast to relax by all of the models by early next week, and some strengthening should then take place while Karl moves over warmer waters. The amount of intensification is a big question mark, with the GFS/ECMWF now showing only a weaker tropical storm, while the rest of the standard intensity guidance (HWRF, GFDL, SHIPS and LGEM models) have Karl as a hurricane by the end of the period. Because of the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is kept the same as the previous one, not too far from the model consensus. The initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 280/12. Model guidance has made a large northward shift today due to the forecasted interaction of a mid/upper-level trough with Karl over the next few days. Initially, the tropical cyclone was expected to be on the western side of the trough, which would have helped steer the cyclone more to the west-southwest over the next couple of days. However, almost all of the guidance now show the trough staying to the west of Karl, which would impart a west or west-northwest motion during that time. The lack of a west-southwest track has large implications down the line, with the cyclone gaining a lot more latitude since Karl is closer to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Continuity dictates that the NHC forecast not be shifted as much as the guidance suggests for this package, since the guidance could still shift back to the south. A large northward adjustment is made to the NHC forecast at all times, but it remains south of the model consensus and the ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 18.8N 35.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 19.0N 37.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 19.0N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 19.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 19.0N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 20.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 22.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 25.0N 60.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-16 22:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 16 the center of KARL was located near 18.8, -35.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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