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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-17 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 17 the center of KARL was located near 18.3, -39.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 13
2016-09-17 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 171448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 ...KARL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 39.0W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 39.0 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km), primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 13
2016-09-17 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 171448 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 39.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 45SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 39.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 40.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.3N 48.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.2N 54.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 39.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-17 11:12:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 08:34:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 09:06:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-09-17 10:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170833 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 Karl is maintaining the status quo with its center at least 120 n mi to the southwest of the deep convection. Since the ASCAT pass from last evening showed a sizable area of 35-40 kt winds, and the Dvorak estimates have been steady, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Karl is located just to the south of an upper-level low, and the resultant westerly shear should gradually relax and change direction during the next few days once Karl moves away from this feature. Sea surface temperatures will be steadily increasing along Karl's forecast path, and mid-tropospheric moisture may begin to increase after 48 hours. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for little change in intensity during the next 48 hours, followed by steady strengthening from day 3 to day 5. This forecast closely follows an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models and still allows for the possibility of Karl becoming a hurricane by day 5. There is no doubt that the center of Karl has been losing latitude during the past 6-12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 265/12 kt. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to continue pushing Karl south of due west during the next 36 hours. After that time, Karl will begin to approach a weakness in the ridge located over the western Atlantic, and the tropical cyclone is forecast to move west-northwestward on days 3-5 well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. Although there is some uncertainty on how far south Karl will get before it turns west-northwestward, the spread among the track models is actually quite small. The updated NHC track forecast essentially lies along the TVCN multi-model consensus line, which ends up being a little south and west of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 18.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 18.1N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 17.9N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 17.6N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 17.8N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 19.4N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 22.0N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 24.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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