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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 18
2016-09-18 22:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 182055 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 ...KARL POISED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 45.0W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 45.0 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karl is forecast to begin strengthening later tonight or on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2016-09-18 22:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 182055 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 18
2016-09-18 22:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 182055 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 45.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 45.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 44.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 49.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 52.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 54.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.9N 59.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.4N 64.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-18 17:13:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 14:55:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 15:07:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-09-18 16:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 181454 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 The overall appearance of Karl has changed little in satellite imagery since the previous advisory. However, recent water vapor imagery suggest that the strong southwesterly shear that has been plaguing the cyclone for the past few days is beginning to relax. The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt based on a TAFB satellite estimate of T2.5/35 kt. Ship BATFR18, which has been skirting the eastern portion of Karl's circulation the past 12 hours, has reported winds as high as 32 kt. That data has been helpful in determining the extent of the 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern quadrant. Karl has trended westward and the initial motion estimate is now 270/11 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic to the north of Karl is expected to keep the cyclone moving in a general westward direction for the next 48 hours or so, followed by west-northwestward motion during the remainder of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the various consensus model solutions. Although Karl's convective pattern is currently somewhat disheveled due to the hostile shear and dry mid-level conditions that the cyclone has been encountering the past several days, the surface wind field has remained remarkably robust, including a tight inner-core. The GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the vertical wind shear to decrease to less than 5 kt from 24-120 hours, which favors a strengthening trend, especially since Karl will be moving 29-30C SSTs during that time. However, only a marginally moist mid-level environment is expected, a condition that could slow down the intensification process. The official intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory, showing gradual strengthening throughout the forecast period, and remains on the conservative side close to the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.2N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.6N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.3N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.2N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 22.3N 58.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.7N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 27.3N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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