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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 16
2016-09-18 10:40:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180840 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 ...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 42.3W ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 42.3 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karl is forecast to begin to strengthen on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2016-09-18 10:40:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 180840 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 16
2016-09-18 10:39:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180839 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 42.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 42.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N 44.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.6N 49.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N 52.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 57.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.9N 62.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 42.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-18 05:13:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 02:32:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 03:07:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-18 04:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180231 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 Karl continues to struggle. The tropical storm is producing a few patches of deep convection to the north and east of the exposed center, but the cyclone lacks banding features. An ASCAT-B pass just prior to 0000Z captured a portion of the circulation and showed that the winds were lower there than they were in the previous pass. Based on that data and the Dvorak classifications, the initial wind speed is lowered a little to 35 kt. The poor structure of Karl is likely due to the combined effects of southwesterly shear and dry mid-level air. These unfavorable atmospheric conditions and marginally warm sea surface temperatures should keep Karl relatively steady state for the next day or so. After that time, lower shear, slightly more moisture, and warmer sea surface temperatures should allow the cyclone to strengthen. The intensity models are a bit higher this cycle at the longer range, and the NHC forecast has been nudged upward. This prediction lies near the lower end of the guidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS model. The center of Karl is moving south of due west at about 10 kt. A general westward motion at a slightly faster pace is expected during the next day or two while Karl is steered by the flow on the south side of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is predicted beyond a couple of days as Karl moves on the southwestern periphery of the ridge and toward a weakness. There is not a significant amount of spread in the models, or the ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF, and the official forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.8N 41.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 17.9N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 18.1N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 18.6N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.4N 51.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 21.2N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 23.7N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 25.8N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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