je.st
news
Tag: karl
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 14
2016-09-17 22:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 172033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 40.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 45SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 40.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.9N 42.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.1N 47.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 50.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N 55.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
karl
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-17 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 17 the center of KARL was located near 18.1, -40.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
karl
tropical
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-09-17 16:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 171452 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 Karl has been in a fairly steady state during the past day or more with convection periodically firing near the center and a larger area of more continuous thunderstorms far from the center. Ship BATFR18 reported sustained winds of about 40 kt at 1100 UTC, which support keeping that wind speed for this advisory. The shear that has been affecting Karl should gradually diminish over the next couple of days as it moves away from a nearby upper-level low. A small amount of weakening is possible in the short term since the system is still struggling against the shear. Thereafter, strengthening is anticipated due to Karl likely moving over very warm waters concurrent with rather light shear. One question mark is the amount of available moisture in the mid-levels, with both the ECMWF and the GFS showing a somewhat dry environment. While a lot of the tropical-cyclone-specific intensity guidance shows a hurricane at long range, the marginal moisture environment forecast by those two global models makes me think twice about going too high. The new forecast is very similar to the previous one and is similar to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models. Karl has been wobbling a little south of due west during the day, depending on how much convection is near the center. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to continue pushing Karl south of due west during the next 24 hours. After that time, Karl should move more to the west-northwest around the weakening ridge through day 4, well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands, and possibly turn northwestward by 120 hours while the cyclone approaches a weakness in the ridge. The spread in the models have increased since the last advisory, perhaps due to Karl's interaction with the upper-low. The new model consensus and the previous official forecast were very close to one another, so no significant changes are made in the new NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 18.3N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 18.1N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.8N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 17.8N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.3N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 20.2N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 22.5N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 25.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
karl
Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-17 16:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 14:49:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 14:50:16 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
karl
tropical
Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-09-17 16:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 171449 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Sites : [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] next »