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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-09-16 04:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160256 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 During the past six hours, a significant increase in the amount and the organization of the deep convection has occurred near and over the well-defined low-level circulation center. The southwestern edge of the cold cloud canopy, characterized by tops as cold as -89C, has continued to expand southwestward over the center despite southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a constrained Dvorak satellite estimate of 35 kt form TAFB, but with a data T-number of T3.0/45 kt using a shear pattern. A 15/2247Z partial ASCAT-B pass indicated several 35-36 kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant more than 60 nmi from the center. Based on continued improvement in the satellite presentation since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt, making Karl the eleventh named storm of the season. Karl is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to move westward and then west-southwestward around a strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken some, allowing Karl to turn back toward the west and then west-northwest by day 5. The new NHC forecast is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCX and the Florida State Superensemble model. Karl is expected to remain in a moderate to strong vertical wind shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, which should inhibit significant intensification. After that time, however, the shear is forecast to decrease to around 5 kt for the remainder of the 120-h period. That would normally result in more robust strengthening while the cyclone is moving over 28-29C SSTs. However, Karl will also be moving through a very dry mid-level moisture regime during that time, so the intensification trend is forecast to be much slower than the climatological rate of 20 kt per day, and lies close to the SHIPS intensity forecast. The large 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern quadrant is based on the aforementioned ASCAT wind data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-09-16 04:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 160256 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-16 04:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 15 the center of KARL was located near 17.9, -32.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 7
2016-09-16 04:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160255 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 ...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 32.5W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1930 MI...3105 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 32.5 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km), mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-09-16 04:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160255 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 32.5W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 32.5W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 31.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 32.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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