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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-17 10:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL'S INTENSITY NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 17 the center of KARL was located near 18.2, -38.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-17 05:13:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 02:53:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 03:07:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-09-17 04:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170250 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 The deep convection with Karl is limited to the northeastern quadrant because of the 20 kt westerly vertical shear currently afflicting the tropical storm. Despite this, a 0007 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated maximum winds of about 40 kt, which is the initial intensity. Karl should continue to struggle for the next day or so due to the hostile vertical shear. The shear should relax as Karl reaches the west side of an upper-level trough in about 36 to 48 hours. From that point in time onward, Karl should be experiencing more conducive conditions: gradually warming SSTs, a moist low to middle troposphere, and low vertical shear. The NHC intensity forecast is for Karl to weaken slightly within the next day and then steadily strengthen starting in about two days onward. This is quite similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus. However, confidence in Karl actually becoming a hurricane in five days is low because of the spread in the guidance. Karl is moving toward the west at 13 kt. The Bermuda-Azores high will be building in north of the tropical storm, helping to propel Karl on a general westward track for the next couple of days. Beginning in about three days, Karl will reach the western periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and bend toward the west-northwest. The reliable track models have substantial spread - especially during days one to three - with some solutions showing a west-southwesterly track, which is rarely seen in this part of the Atlantic basin. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous advisory, and is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus. The initial size of Karl is determined by the recent scatterometer pass, which showed a large area of tropical-storm-force winds in the northern semicircle, but none to the south. The NHC wind radii forecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.5N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 18.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 18.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 18.5N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 20.0N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-17 04:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL CONTINUES AS A TROPICAL STORM OVER OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 16 the center of KARL was located near 18.5, -37.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 11
2016-09-17 04:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170249 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 ...KARL CONTINUES AS A TROPICAL STORM OVER OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 37.0W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1630 MI...2625 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 37.0 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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