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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 15
2016-09-18 04:30:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180230 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 41.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 41.3W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 40.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 43.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.1N 46.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.6N 48.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.4N 51.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 56.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 65.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-18 04:30:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 17 the center of KARL was located near 17.8, -41.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 15
2016-09-18 04:30:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180230 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 ...KARL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 41.3W ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 41.3 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karl is forecast to begin to strengthen on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-17 22:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 20:35:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 20:33:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-09-17 22:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 172034 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 Convection continues to flare up and down near the center of Karl, with a larger mass well to the northeast of the center. In addition, the circulation looks more elongated than earlier today, perhaps due to the convective asymmetry. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt since the system does not look all that different, although the satellite classifications are a bit lower. Karl could still weaken a little bit in the short term while the cyclone is in a recovery stage from its interaction with an upper-level low. Gradual strengthening is then forecast by early next week as the storm encounters very warm water, low shear, and a marginal moisture environment. Model guidance is very similar to the previous cycle, except for the ECMWF which shows a more powerful cyclone by day 5. Very little change was made to the official forecast, which continues to be most similar to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models. The initial motion estimate is unchanged from the previous one, 265/11. Karl should begin to gain some latitude by Monday as it moves around the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday due to the orientation of the ridge, and this motion could continue for the rest of the 5-day period. The biggest change since the last cycle is that model guidance is showing a stronger ridge in the central Atlantic, which would prolong the west-northwestward motion. The track models have shifted westward at long range, and the official forecast is moved in that direction, but not as far west as the 12Z ECMWF/GFS solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 18.1N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.9N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 17.8N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 18.1N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 18.8N 50.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 20.6N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 23.0N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 25.0N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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