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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-30 16:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 14:36:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 14:36:16 GMT
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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-09-30 16:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 762 WTPZ45 KNHC 301432 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Rosa continues to be affected by increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters. Most of the deep convection has been eroded over the southern semicircle of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is reduced to 65 kt in agreement with ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Rosa later today to provide a better estimate of the intensity of the system. Since the vertical shear is predicted to continue to increase and SSTs should cool to below 23 deg C by Monday, additional weakening is likely before Rosa reaches the Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the numerical guidance. The hurricane is moving just east of north, or around 010/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisory package. Rosa is likely to be steered north-northeastward in the flow ahead of a large mid-level trough approaching from the west. This should take the center of the cyclone across Baja California in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Monday night. Rosa or it's remnant should move over the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly spreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 24.4N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 25.9N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 29.3N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 31.8N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1200Z 36.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-30 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Rosa was located near 24.4, -118.6 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 22
2018-09-30 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 498 WTPZ35 KNHC 301431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...ROSA WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 118.6W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 118.6 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2018-09-30 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 469 FOPZ15 KNHC 301431 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) IS GUADALUPE 34 5 10(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 5 31(36) 21(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 4 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 8 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 120W 34 31 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 30N 120W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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