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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-09-30 10:40:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 841 WTPZ45 KNHC 300840 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Infrared and microwave satellite images indicate a continued erosion of Rosa's inner-core structure since the previous advisory due to southwesterly vertical wind shear near 20 kt along with colder water beneath the hurricane and entrainment of drier mid-level air in the southwestern quadrant. The intensity was assessed as 80 kt at 0600 UTC based on the high-end estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, but since then the rapid erosion of the eye feature and strong northeastward tilt to the vortex column noted in microwave imagery suggests a lower estimate of 75 kt for the advisory intensity. This initial motion estimate is 005/10 kt. Rosa is forecast to continue moving northward around the western edge of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday as a mid-/upper-level trough approaches from the west. As the low- and upper-level circulations continue to decouple, Rosa should essentially maintain its current forward speed until landfall occurs in 36-48 hours due to the cyclone not being influenced by the faster deep-layer steering flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory track, and closely follows the consensus models HCCA and IVCN. A 72-hour forecast position continues to be provided for continuity purposes, but Rosa's surface circulation is likely to dissipate before that time over northwestern Mexico or southern Arizona, with the mid-level remnants continuing northward across the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West. Rosa is now moving over waters colder than 25 deg C, with colder water near 22 deg C ahead of the cyclone just prior to landfall. The combination of increasing wind shear, cooler waters and drier and more stable air being entrained from the west should result in steady or even rapid weakening of the cyclone until landfall occurs. The official forecast follows the sharp weakening trend indciated in the previous advisory, which is supported by the latest intensity guidance. Rosa is expected to devolve into an exposed low-level center with the associated deep convection being sheared off to its north and northeast by the time it is nearing the Baja California coast on Monday. However, it will take some time for the circulation to spin down, and Rosa is still expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of Baja California in 36-48 hours. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly spreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 23.3N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 26.5N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 30.6N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 37.2N 110.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-09-30 10:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 886 FOPZ15 KNHC 300839 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) IS GUADALUPE 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 3 8(11) 37(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) X(26) X(26) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 4 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 120W 34 33 2(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 30N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-30 10:39:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER COLDER WATERS... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Rosa was located near 23.3, -118.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 21
2018-09-30 10:39:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 714 WTPZ35 KNHC 300839 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...ROSA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER COLDER WATERS... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 118.8W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 118.8 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California from today through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-09-30 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 420 WTPZ25 KNHC 300838 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.8W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.8W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 118.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 117.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.6N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.2N 110.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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