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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-03 22:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 338 WTNT41 KNHC 032033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 Florence appears a little better organized than earlier today. Deep convection is slightly stronger near and to the north of the center, and the cloud pattern still resembles a central dense overcast. A blend of the latest Dvorak classifications suggests a slightly higher wind speed, and accordingly, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 60 kt. The strong tropical storm is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 13 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The global models all show a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next several days due to a series of troughs moving across the Atlantic. In response, Florence is expected to gradually turn northwestward with a slight reduction in forward speed during the next several days. While there remains a fair amount of spread in the models from 72 to 120 h, there has been a notable trend to the right, or north, during the past few model cycles. The official track forecast is adjusted slightly to the right as well, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Little change in strength is expected through tonight as Florence remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind shear conditions. However, nearly all of the intensity models show a slow weakening trend during the next few days. This weakening is in response to a gradual increase in southwesterly or westerly shear. Beyond a few days, however, the shear is expected to decrease and Florence will be over much warmer waters. Therefore, slow strengthening is shown in the 3 to 5 day period. This forecast is slightly higher than the previous one at the longer range, but is otherwise unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.4N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.7N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 28.0N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-09-03 22:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 337 FONT11 KNHC 032033 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-03 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 3 the center of Florence was located near 18.6, -39.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 18
2018-09-03 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 885 WTNT31 KNHC 032033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 ...FLORENCE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 39.8W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 39.8 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but some weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-09-03 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 450 WTNT21 KNHC 032031 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 39.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 39.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 39.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 43.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 46.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.7N 52.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 39.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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