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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2018-09-04 04:30:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 370 FONT11 KNHC 040230 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-04 04:30:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 3 the center of Florence was located near 18.9, -41.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 19

2018-09-04 04:30:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 354 WTNT31 KNHC 040230 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 ...FLORENCE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 41.0W ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 41.0 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but some weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 19

2018-09-04 04:30:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 353 WTNT21 KNHC 040230 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 41.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 41.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 40.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 42.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 44.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 47.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 49.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.5N 53.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 26.8N 55.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.4N 57.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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