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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 8A
2018-11-04 18:42:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 041741 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 105.4 West. Xavier is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the coast tonight and on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. These winds are occurring very near the coast of southwestern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-04 15:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Nov 2018 14:37:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Nov 2018 15:21:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-04 15:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM XAVIER SPREADING ONSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 4 the center of Xavier was located near 17.6, -105.3 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 8
2018-11-04 15:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 041435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 900 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM XAVIER SPREADING ONSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 105.3W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Xavier. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 105.3 West. Xavier is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the coast tonight and on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-11-04 15:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 041435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 1500 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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