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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-11-03 09:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 030835 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0900 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 107.7W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 107.7W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.6N 106.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.5N 107.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-03 03:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Nov 2018 02:35:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Nov 2018 03:21:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-11-03 03:33:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030233 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018 For the 22nd time this year, a tropical storm (Xavier) has formed over the eastern North Pacific. The most recent intensity estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support increasing the initial intensity to 35 kt. Xavier is the first tropical storm to reach the "X" name on the East Pacific namelist since 1992. No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast. The tropical storm is strongly sheared from the southwest and convective activity is limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Although Xavier should be located over warm waters for the next 5 days, strong upper-level southwesterly flow will cause high wind shear across the cyclone. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast that the tropical storm could strengthen a little more over the next day or so, while the statistical guidance indicates that Xavier is already near its peak intensity. The NHC intensity forecast follows the consensus and shows slight strengthening through the weekend. By early next week, increased shear and a drier surrounding environment will likely cause Xavier to weaken and become a remnant low. It has been difficult to identify the center of Xavier this evening, but it is estimated that the tropical storm is still moving generally east-northeastward at around 7 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending over central Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico should cause Xavier to turn toward the northeast or north overnight and tomorrow. There has been a shift in the GFS and its associated regional models, which now show a farther northeast track of Xavier, closer to the coast of Mexico. However, a majority of the dynamical models still show the cyclone turning abruptly westward and away from land while it weakens by early next week. Out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble, which show a much farther west track for Xavier, the NHC forecast has been nudged only slightly toward the northeast through 48 h and now lies a little to the west of the TVCE track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.5N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 15.6N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 16.4N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 17.1N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-11-03 03:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 030232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0300 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 15N 105W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-03 03:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Nov 2 the center of Xavier was located near 14.5, -108.2 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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