je.st
news
Tag: xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-11-04 15:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 041434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 1500 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF XAVIER. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.3W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.3W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.1N 105.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 107.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.1N 109.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-04 09:40:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Nov 2018 08:40:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Nov 2018 09:21:51 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-11-04 09:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 040838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0900 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-11-04 09:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040838 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 Xavier remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Although deep convection continues to develop over the northeastern portion of the circulation, recent satellite imagery suggests that the center has become a little more exposed to the southwest of the convective mass. Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have not changed overnight, and a blend of those data along with the latest SATCON estimate still yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt. Xavier has likely peaked in intensity as the strong vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to increase further today and tonight. This should result in gradual weakening during the next day or two, and the new NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the latest multi-model intensity consensus. The dynamical models indicate that Xavier will lose its deep convection in 48 to 72 hours, and the official forecast calls for the system to degenerate to a remnant low by day 3. The latest satellite fixes suggest that Xavier has made its anticipated northward turn. The tropical storm is forecast to move slowly northward today, but it should turn west-northwestward, then westward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it weakens and is steered by the low-level flow to the south of a subtropical ridge. The UKMET model remains an outlier as it keeps the cyclone stronger and deeper which allows Xavier to move much farther north. The remainder of the track guidance is in good agreement, and the updated NHC track is near a blend of the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF models, and is very close to the latest FSSE guidance. Although the center Xavier is not forecast to move much closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico, large swells and locally heavy rainfall could affect portions of that area during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 16.6N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 17.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.8N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.3N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-04 09:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER TURNS NORTHWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Sun Nov 4 the center of Xavier was located near 16.6, -105.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
xavier
Sites : [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »