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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)

2018-11-03 21:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Nov 3 the center of Xavier was located near 15.6, -106.1 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 5

2018-11-03 21:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 032039 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 PM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 ...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 106.1W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 106.1 West. Xavier is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the northeast and then north is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west on Sunday night or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Xavier may produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 5

2018-11-03 21:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032039 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 2100 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.1N 105.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 105.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.3N 106.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2018-11-03 21:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 032039 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 2100 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 43 2(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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