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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-11-03 15:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 031434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 900 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 Although Xavier is being affected by 20-25 kt of westerly vertical shear, the cyclone continues to generate a large burst of convection and the low-level center is now located under the southwestern edge of the convective mass. The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt, which is at the upper end of the various satellite intensity estimates. During the next 24 h, the dynamical models suggest that an upper-level trough located to the north and west of Xavier should provide upper-level divergence over the cyclone. This could allow some additional strengthening despite the ongoing shear. After that time, the trough is forecast to dissipate, leaving the tropical storm in an area of upper-level convergence and moderate to strong shear that should cause it to weaken. Based on this evolution, the intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening during the next 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening through the remainder of the forecast period, with the cyclone becoming a remnant low in about 96 h. The forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance and lies near the upper edge of the guidance. Based on a combination of conventional and microwave satellite fixes, the initial motion is estimated to be 060/7. There is again little change to the forecast track philosophy. Xavier should turn northeastward and then northward during the next 24 h toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by the aforementioned trough. As Xavier weakens and becomes a shallow system, the cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest and west as it is steered by the low-level flow to the south of the subtropical ridge. The new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east and north of the previous track, but it remains close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.3N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 16.6N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 17.3N 106.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 17.4N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-03 15:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Nov 3 the center of Xavier was located near 15.3, -107.0 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 4
2018-11-03 15:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 031433 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 900 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 ...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 107.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 107.0 West. Xavier is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower motion toward the northeast and then north is expected through Sunday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-11-03 15:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 031433 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 1500 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 21 7(28) 3(31) 2(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-11-03 15:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 031433 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 1500 UTC SAT NOV 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.6N 106.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.3N 106.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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