je.st
news
Tag: xavier
Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-04 03:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER TURNS NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Nov 3 the center of Xavier was located near 16.1, -105.7 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 6
2018-11-04 03:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 040236 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018 ...XAVIER TURNS NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 105.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 105.7 West.Xavier is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower motion toward the north-northeast and then north is expected overnight and on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west on Monday. Xavier is then forecast to move westward through mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and on Sunday. Weakening is anticipated by Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Xavier may produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-11-04 03:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 040236 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0300 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.7W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.7W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N 105.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.8N 106.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 110.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-03 21:41:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Nov 2018 20:41:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Nov 2018 21:21:53 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-11-03 21:40:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032040 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 PM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018 Xavier continues to show a sheared cloud pattern in conventional satellite imagery this afternoon, with the low-level center located near or just southwest of the main convective mass. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 45 kt, and recent scatterometer data also indicate winds near 45 kt. Thus, the initial intensity remains at that value. Analyses from CIMSS and from the SHIPS model indicate that Xavier is still in an environment of 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical shear. There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the last advisory. During the next 12-24 h, the dynamical models suggest that an upper-level trough located to the north and west of Xavier should provide upper-level divergence over the cyclone. This could allow some additional strengthening despite the ongoing shear. After that time, the trough is forecast to dissipate, leaving the tropical storm in an area of upper-level convergence, moderate to strong shear, and a dry surrounding air that should cause it to weaken. Based on this evolution, the intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening early in the forecast, followed by gradual weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. As in the previous forecast, Xavier is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in about 96 h. The forecast again follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance and lies near the upper edge of the guidance through 48 h. The initial motion is now 060/8. As mentioned previously, Xavier should turn northeastward and then northward during the next 24 h toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by the aforementioned trough. As Xavier weakens and becomes a shallow system, the cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest and west as it is steered by the low-level flow to the south of the subtropical ridge. All of the dynamical models follow this scenario except for the UKMET, which shows a much more northward motion toward the southern Gulf of California. The new forecast track will follow the model consensus in showing the westward motion, and the new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.6N 106.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 16.1N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 16.9N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 17.3N 106.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 17.5N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 18.0N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »