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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 7
2018-11-04 09:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 040837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 ...XAVIER TURNS NORTHWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 105.9W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 105.9 West. Xavier is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west- northwest and west are expected tonight and Monday, and Xavier is then forecast to move westward through mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today and continue over the next few days. Xavier is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night, and degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Xavier may produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-11-04 09:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 040837 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0900 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.9W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.9W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.3N 105.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.8N 106.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.2N 109.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.3N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-04 03:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Nov 2018 02:38:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Nov 2018 03:21:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-11-04 03:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040237 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018 Xavier's overall structure has not changed since this afternoon. The tropical storm is still strongly sheared and deep convection is primarily occurring to the northeast of its low-level center. Recent objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 45 to 50 kt. Earlier ASCAT data explicitly contained several vectors near 45 kt, but the instrument could have under-sampled the maximum winds. Based on all these data, 50 kt seems most representative of the tropical storm's intensity at this time. Regardless of Xavier's exact maximum winds, it is likely nearing its peak intensity now. Some slight additional strengthening in the short term can not be ruled out, however the global models indicate that strong wind shear will continue through the forecast period and the flow aloft will become less supportive for convection by late Sunday or early Monday. All of the intensity models forecast that Xavier will begin to weaken in about 24 h. By 96 h, if not sooner, the dynamical models indicate that Xavier will lose all deep convection and become a remnant low. Virtually no change was made to the official intensity forecast, which is merely an update of the previous advisory. Xavier is now moving toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is 035/6 kt. With the continued exception of the UKMET model, the typically reliable track guidance is in good agreement on the track of the tropical storm. The cyclone will likely turn northward tonight or tomorrow, and is then forecast to turn steadily westward in another day or two as it weakens and becomes vertically shallow. The UKMET does not show this turn and shows a stronger/deeper Xavier that moves farther north, though this scenario appears unlikely given the strong agreement among the intensity models that Xavier will weaken. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which blends the previous official forecast with the HCCA and GFEX consensus aids at most forecast hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 16.1N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.7N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 17.8N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 18.1N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-11-04 03:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 040236 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0300 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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