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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-06-19 16:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 191439 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Claudette continues to move inland, with the center now located over southern Mississippi. Most of the showers and thunderstorms are still located on the storm's east side and extend across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Based on surface observations, the initial intensity is estimated to be 35 kt, and those winds are occurring along the coast within the warning area and over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt. A turn to the northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by an east-northeastward motion tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada early next week. The models are in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to the previous one, except a little to the right at the longer range forecast times. In the short term, land interaction should cause weakening and Claudette will likely become a tropical depression later today. In 36 to 48 hours, however, the global models, except for the GFS, show Claudette restrengthening when it nears and moves offshore of the Carolinas Sunday night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is likely due in part to baroclinic processes. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive during that portion of the forecast showing Claudette having peak winds of 45-50 kt along the coast when the center is located over eastern North Carolina. Once the system moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic Canada. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend across these areas, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring along portions of the Gulf Coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida. These winds will continue for a few more hours. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 31.0N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 32.9N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 33.7N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1200Z 35.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0000Z 37.5N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 22/1200Z 40.4N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 49.5N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-06-19 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 191438 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...AND FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 89.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 89.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 32.9N 85.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.7N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.0N 77.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.5N 72.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 49.5N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 89.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 6

2021-06-19 16:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 125 WTPZ44 KNHC 191437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Dolores's center is moving onshore near the Michoacan/Colima border a little to the northwest of Punta San Telmo, Mexico. Within its last few hours over water, Dolores's satellite presentation continued to improve, and an SSMIS microwave pass from 1155 UTC showed that the storm has a large, well-defined mid-level eye surrounded by a nearly closed eyewall. Dolores appears to be very close to hurricane strength, and its current intensity is set at 60 kt as a compromise between estimates of T3.5 and T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Dolores has been accelerating while approaching the coast, and its current motion is estimated to be toward the north-northwest (335 degrees) at 11 kt. With the center forecast to move farther inland through the day, the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico is expected to disrupt the surface circulation, and the model guidance generally shows the low-level vorticity dissipating in about 12 hours, or less. To maintain continuity with previous forecasts, the NHC official forecast maintains a track for 24 hours, showing Dolores weakening fast and degenerating to a remnant low over west-central Mexico by this time tomorrow. However, it is entirely possible that the surface circulation will have dissipated by Sunday morning, with the associated rains continuing to spread northward with the remnant mid-level circulation. Even though Dolores is making landfall, the hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico is being maintained on this advisory since gusts to hurricane force could be occurring to the east of where the center is moving onshore. Key Messages: 1. Even though Dolores had made landfall, tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across west-central Mexico through the day and tonight. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible for a few more hours within the hurricane watch area. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 18.6N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 6

2021-06-19 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 955 WTPZ24 KNHC 191436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 103.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-06-19 10:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190859 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be considered a tropical storm. While the organization is not classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics, the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system is now Tropical Storm Claudette. The initial wind speed remains 40 kt, in line with surface observations and radar. These winds are primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the cyclone well away from the center. Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt. The storm should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone. The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to 72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new intensity forecast is more conservative than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory. Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts along the northern Gulf coast will continue. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 29.6N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/1800Z 30.9N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 32.2N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z 33.3N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/0600Z 34.2N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 21/1800Z 35.8N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 22/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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