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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 10:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190858 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.7W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.7W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.9N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.2N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.3N 84.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.2N 80.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.8N 76.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-19 10:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190852 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dolores appears to be in another bursting pattern coincident with the diurnal max this morning, as deep convection and cold cloud tops have increased in coverage and intensity near the estimated low-level center. A distinct curved band has also formed along the storm's southern semicircle. The latest Dvorak subjective intensity estimates were both T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, though the most recent CIMSS-ADT intensity estimate was only T3.0/45 kt. Unfortunately there has not been no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to better assess the inner core structure of the cyclone. Blending the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the maximum sustained winds was raised to 50 kt for this advisory, though this value may be conservative. Dolores appears to be making a slow right turn as the storm gradually accelerates while it rounds the western side of a mid-level ridge, currently moving at 330/9 kt. A gradual acceleration toward the north-northwest is anticipated until landfall with this motion continuing until the storm dissipates over the high terrain of western Mexico. The latest track forecast is a bit to the east of the previous forecast cycle but remains in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. On this track, Dolores is expected to reach the Mexican coastline in the next 12 h and push far inland thereafter. Given the eastward adjustment in the forecast track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch further to the southeast for this advisory. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional intensification right up until landfall along the Mexican coast, close to Punta San Telmo, in about 12 h. The current forecast intensity for 60 kt in 12 hours is a bit higher than the guidance consensus, as few models already have the storm inland at that time. Rapid weakening is forecast as Dolores moves inland over western Mexico thereafter and the storm will likely dissipate by 36 h, if not sooner. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today up until landfall, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by this afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.0N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-06-19 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190849 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190244 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with the broad low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico is slowly getting better defined, and several swirls of low-level clouds/vorticity centers were apparent in visible imagery just before dark. However, surface data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the surface wind field is more like a trough elongated NNE-SSW from southeastern Louisiana into the Gulf. In addition, the convection associated with the system is mostly well to the northeast of the swirls. Based on this, the low will remain as a potential tropical cyclone, as it has not yet put all of the pieces together to be called a tropical or subtropical cyclone. There is again little change to the track forecast reasoning. The initial motion is a little slower than before at 010/11. This general motion should continue until the system reaches the northern Gulf coast in the next 6 h or so. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. The new forecast is a little faster and a little south of the previous forecast after 36 h based on the latest guidance, but other than that there are no significant changes. Time is running out for the system to develop further before landfall. However, it should be noted that in this case landfall will not instantly put an end to the chances of tropical or subtropical cyclone development, as much of the associated strong winds and convection will remain over water for at least 12 h. After that time, the system should be far enough inland to cause weakening to start. One note is that all of the global models except the GFS now forecast the low to survive for more than 72 h. The new intensity forecast will not change the dissipation time for now. However, if the 00Z global models continue this trend, subsequent advisories may need to show a longer life for the system. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts along the northern Gulf coast will continue regardless of whether there is any additional development. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into the southern Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 28.9N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/1200Z 30.4N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 31.9N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 33.2N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0000Z 34.1N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/1200Z 35.5N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190243 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 90.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 90.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.9N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.2N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.1N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.5N 79.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 90.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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