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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-11-16 15:53:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161453 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota is a very impressive hurricane, especially for this late in the year, with a distinct, warm eye on satellite images and a rather electrified eyewall from the GOES lightning detector. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum 700-mb flight-winds of about 147 kt, with SFMR values of 140-145 kt, and a central pressure of about 917 mb. A blend of all these data leads to an initial wind speed of 140 kt, making Iota a category 5 hurricane, the latest category 5 on record for the Atlantic basin. A little more strengthening is possible today with fairly light shear and warm waters before Iota makes landfall tonight. Rapid weakening is anticipated over central America, and Iota should dissipate in a couple of days. The hurricane is moving westward at 9 kt. This general motion with perhaps a slight gain in latitude is expected through tonight due to a large ridge of the high pressure to the north. After landfall, the cyclone should move a little faster, and dissipate over the higher terrain of central America. The new forecast is a little south of the previous one, mostly owing to the initial position. This is a catastrophic situation unfolding for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did about two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 3. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely still occurring on Providencia. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.5N 82.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 13.7N 83.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.0N 84.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 14.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 13.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-11-16 15:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161451 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA CASTILLA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 82.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 82.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 83.2W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.0N 84.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.1N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.9N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-11-16 09:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160855 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and aircrew that flew the arduous, 10-hour round-trip mission into Iota reported a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 134 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 121 kt, which supports the initial intensity of 125 kt, making Iota a strong Category 4 hurricane. Furthermore, the pressure fell an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour between those two fixes. The crew also encountered intense lightning and hail in the southwestern quadrant, where recent remote data indicate that frequent lightning is still occurring. The aircrew reported that the eye was around 15 n mi wide, and the latest GOES-16 hi-resolution infrared satellite imagery confirms that the eye diameter, and that the eye has cleared out with continued warming eye temperatures and cooling surrounding cloud tops. Iota is moving north of due west, or 280/09 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast until powerful Hurricane Iota makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later tonight. Shortly after landfall, a building ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to nudge Iota on a more westward track through 36 hours, followed by a slower west-southwestward motion across central and southwestern Honduras until it dissipates in the 72-96 hour period. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Iota is expected to remain in environmental conditions characterized by near-zero vertical wind shear, SSTs near 29 deg C, and a moist mid-level environment. The combination of these factors plus the relatively small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 10 n mi, argues for continued rapid strengthening right up until landfall occurs, and Iota could be near Category 5 strength at that time. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. Iota is forecast to become a tropical storm by 36 hours, and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, if not sooner, which is in line with the SHIPS intensity inland decay model. The NHC official intensity forecast remains above of all of the available guidance through 24 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity model thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and could possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely on Providencia today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.6N 81.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 14.3N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z 14.1N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/0600Z 13.8N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-11-16 09:31:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160830 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED ON PROVIDENCIA AND SAN ANDRES ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.1N 88.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.8N 89.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 81.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-11-16 03:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160231 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Iota continues to gain strength. A small eye has occasionally appeared in satellite images, and the banding features are well established and fairly symmetric around the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Iota earlier this evening, and they found maximum flight-level winds of 93 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 84 kt around 00Z. Based on this data and the continued improvement in organization, the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt. The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft was 961 mb around 00Z, which is a 13 mb drop from the flight earlier today. Another Air Force plane is set to be in the hurricane overnight. Iota is moving westward at about 9 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua Monday night. After landfall, the models show a slight bend to the left as the hurricane moves in the flow on the southeast side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The hurricane is in near ideal conditions to continue strengthening until landfall. In an environment of warm 29 C waters, very low wind shear, and a moist air mass all of the normally skillful models show Iota becoming a dangerous major hurricane before it strikes the coast. Given the favorable conditions, well-defined structure of the hurricane, and model guidance there is high confidence that significant wind, surge, and rainfall impacts will occur in portions of the hurricane warning area. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and the hurricane will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain in Central America in 3 or 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia later tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.3N 80.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 13.5N 81.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.2N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 87.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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