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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-11-15 03:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 18.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-11-15 03:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150232 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Iota continues to strengthen. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and intensity near the center, and microwave images indicate that the inner core is becoming better defined. The Dvorak classifications at 00Z supported an intensity of 55 kt, and since the thunderstorms continue to organize, the initial wind speed is set a little higher to 60 kt. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Iota overnight. Iota has slowed a little and has now turned westward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/4 kt. A ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic is expected to remain to the north of Iota. This high pressure system, and another ridge over Mexico and the western Gulf, should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days and then westward to west-southwestward after that. This motion should take the core of Iota to the coast of Nicaragua Monday night. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear quite favorable for Iota to continue strengthening until it reaches the coast in a little more than 2 days. Since the storm appears to be developing an inner core, rapid strengthening during the next couple of days seems likely. All of the intensity models show a significant amount of strengthening before landfall, and are higher than the previous cycle. Based on the latest guidance and favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above the previous one and shows Iota becoming a hurricane soon and a major hurricane in 36 hours. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The NHC forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to intensify and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected there beginning Monday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 12.7N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 12.9N 77.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.7N 81.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 14.0N 82.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.1N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 14.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 13.6N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-11-14 22:11:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 142110 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Corrected the numbering of the Key Messages and a typo in first paragraph Deep convection has re-developed closer to the low-level center of Iota during the afternoon, and there has been an increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has flown an unusually long mission from its base in Biloxi, Mississippi, indicate that the increase in organization has resulted in strengthening. The plane measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and SFMR winds of 46 kt. Those were the basis for the increase in wind speed on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. Given the continued increase in organization, the initial intensity has been set at 50 kt for this advisory. The aircraft reported that the minimum pressure had fallen to around 995 mb during its final pass through the center. The aircraft data indicate that Iota has not developed a tight inner core yet, but with the increase in convection closer to the center, and with the storm moving away from the coast of northwestern Colombia, it is likely Iota will begin to strengthen at a faster rate by Sunday. The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become quite favorable while the storm traverses SSTs of around 29C. These conditions are likely to result in steady to rapid strengthening over the next couple of days and the NHC intensity forecast again predicts that Iota will be at or near major hurricane strength when it nears the coast of Central America. The SHIPS model is explicitly forecasting rapid intensification (a 30-kt increase in wind speed) over each of the next 24 h periods, and the NHC intensity forecast is quite similar, and is also in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Satellite imagery and the aircraft fixes show that Iota has continued to move west-southwestward today. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida should build eastward over the western Atlantic during the next day or two. This should allow Iota to move westward to west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed, with this motion bringing the storm near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras by late Monday. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected to take the center of Iota inland over Central America. The track guidance has again shifted southward, partially due to the more southward initial position once again. This has resulted in another southward shift in the NHC track forecast, which is again near the TVCA multi-model consensus. The latest track forecast necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for Providencia island, and Hurricane Watches were issued earlier this afternoon for portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. In addition to the wind and storm surge threats, Iota is likely to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of Central America that are still recovering from Hurricane Eta's impacts. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to intensify and be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of damaging wind and a dangerous storm surge across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of that area. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 12.6N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 12.7N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 13.0N 78.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 80.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 14.0N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 13.6N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-11-14 21:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142054 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF SAN ANDRES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 76.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 76.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.7N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.0N 78.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.4N 80.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.0N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 13.6N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 76.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-11-14 21:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 890 WTNT45 KNHC 142038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta's center continues to keep it classifiable as a tropical cyclone, with the edge of the convection at one point today reaching within 60 n mi of the center of the cyclone. Over the past couple of hours this convection has become farther displaced from Theta's center, as the system gets blasted by over 40 kt of northerly shear. Since the cyclone's appearance has changed little today, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based off data from an ASCAT-A overpass this morning. Very strong shear and dry air entrainment should cause the deep convection to weaken and become even farther displaced from the center tonight, with Theta anticipated to degenerate into a remnant low by 12 h. The cyclone should also weaken under this regime, and open into a trough by 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity guidance. Theta continues moving just south of due east, but now at a slower pace of around 5 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the south of Theta is weakening, which will result in a continued slow east-southeastward motion through tonight. As Theta becomes a shallow system on Sunday, the low-level flow is forecast to become southwesterly, and this flow is expected to increase on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will cause Theta to turn to the northeast by late Sunday and accelerate until it dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 31.7N 19.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 31.7N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1800Z 32.1N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 35.1N 16.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 38.1N 14.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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