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Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-11-15 15:30:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 151430 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 18.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 18.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-15 09:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150841 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 77.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 77.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 78.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.7N 80.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N 81.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 84.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.2N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 77.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-11-15 09:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150837 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Theta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta is barely a tropical cyclone. The only remnants of deep convection are a small area of warming cloud tops, located around 90 n mi to the southeast of Theta's exposed center. The cyclone has produced little central convection all day, so it is assumed that at least slight weakening has occurred and the intensity is set at 30 kt. This also agrees with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. If Theta does not redevelop substantial inner-core convection soon, it will likely become a remnant low later today. The cyclone has slowed down and is moving eastward with an initial motion of 090/4 kt. A continued slow eastward track is expected today, before a ridge centered over northwestern Africa begins to steer the cyclone northward on Monday. Although Theta could continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection, no significant redevelopment is anticipated due to surrounding dry air and cool underlying SSTs. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h and dissipate in 60 h. No major changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-11-15 09:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 18.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-11-15 03:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150236 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta remains a highly sheared but resilient tropical cyclone with little change in its satellite appearance since the previous advisory. A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta remains within about 60 n mi of the storm center, despite a hostile environment characterized by dry mid-level air and 40-50 kt of northerly shear. Unfortunately, several scatterometer passes this evening missed the core of the cyclone. Since the satellite presentation is generally unchanged from earlier today, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 Dvorak classification received from TAFB. Strong northerly shear and continued dry air entrainment will eventually take a toll on Theta, but recent satellite trends and the latest GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that the cyclone could remain tropical a little longer than previously forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Theta as a 35-kt tropical storm at 12 h before weakening it into a remnant low by 24 h. This follows the consensus of the latest intensity guidance. Thereafter, continued weakening is expected through its dissipation early next week. Theta is still moving eastward at around 4 kt. The cyclone should begin turning northeastward later today, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Monday as the shallow remnant low is steered by a low-level ridge centered over northwestern Africa. The remains of Theta are forecast to open up into a trough and dissipate by 60 h ahead of an approaching cold front over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, which generally follows the latest track consensus aids. On the forecast track, the remnant low of Theta is expected to pass near the island of Madeira late Sunday night or early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 31.7N 18.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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