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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-11-17 09:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170844 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 Iota made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua around 0340 UTC, near the town of Haulover. Iota's landfall location was about 12 nmi south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. Due to the previous damage caused by Eta, wind reports have been extremely limited. There was an amateur radio report from Club de Radio-Experimentadores de Nicaragua of 124 mph (200 Km/h) winds and roofs damaged in the town of Wilbi, Nicaragua. However, it is uncertain if these were sustained winds or wind gusts. At the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport at 0253 UTC, a sustained wind of 72 kt (134 km/h) and a gust to 98 kt (182 km/h) were measured. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on the Decay-SHIPS model's weakening rate for inland tropical cyclones, and the remnant eye feature still noted in infrared satellite imagery. Iota is moving westward, or 270/08 kt. Iota is expected to continue moving generally westward today into early Wednesday, as the cyclone moves along he southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over the northern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and southeastern Mexico. The lower levels of the ridge are forecast to push southward behind a cold front, which will force Iota and its remnants west-southwestward across southern Honduras and El Salvador in the 24-36 hour period. Iota is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, with the remnant mid-level circulation possibly drifting westward into the eastern North Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Additional rapid weakening is forecast for the next 36 hours as Iota moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance. Although Hurricane Iota has moved inland, damaging winds are occurring inland, and also along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua, where a significant storm surge of 5-10 ft is still likely occurring. In addition to the destructive winds and storm surge, there will be the potential for up to 30 inches of rainfall. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is moving across the same general location that Category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is still a significant hurricane. Damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.7N 84.3W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-11-17 09:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170838 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PROVIDENCIA AND SAN ANDRES ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-11-17 03:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170235 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota is about to make landfall on the coast of northeastern Nicaragua about 30 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas. Satellite images show that the hurricane is very powerful with a circular well-defined eye and a fairly symmetric convective ring surrounding that feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were investigating Iota earlier this evening and found that the minimum pressure was fairly steady at around 920 mb. Based on the aircraft data, including 143-kt flight-level winds, the initial intensity is set at 135 kt. Iota is moving to the west at about 8 kt and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, taking the cyclone across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Rapid weakening is forecast as Iota moves inland, and the cyclone is anticipated to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus models, and the intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance. This is a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall. In addition, the situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is making landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is a catastrophic hurricane. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to the heavy rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 13.6N 83.4W 135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 17/1200Z 13.7N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 13.8N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-11-17 03:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170232 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 45SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.7N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.8N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.8N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-11-16 21:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162040 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota has a powerful appearance on the latest satellite imagery, with a well-defined eye and solid eyewall. The last aircraft mission reported winds similar to the previous crew, with maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of about 145 kt, with SFMR values of 130-135 kt, and a central pressure of about 919 mb. This data support an initial wind speed of about 140 kt, although this could be a little generous. The next aircraft will be in the hurricane early this evening for a final reconnaissance assessment. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall this evening, and rapid weakening is anticipated over central America. Notably, strong winds are expected near the core and in coastal areas of Honduras for about a day after landfall, along with torrential rainfall. The hurricane is moving westward a little slower, about 8 kt. The forecast has been gradually adjusting southward with Iota refusing to gain much latitude, seemingly under the influence of a strong ridge. The new NHC track is nudged southward again, but still remains close to where Hurricane Eta made landfall a couple of weeks ago. Iota is expected to dissipate over the high terrain of central America before reaching the eastern Pacific. This remains a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 13.6N 82.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.7N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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