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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-14 09:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data received since the last advisory indicate that Iota is a bit disorganized. The deep convection is currently not concentrated near the center, and the scatterometer wind data showed an elongated circulation with a trough extending west-southwestward from the center. The scatterometer data also showed maximum winds of 30-35 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and based on this, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iota at around 18Z. Iota continues to move south of west with the initial motion of 245/4 kt. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should build eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move westward at a somewhat faster forward speed through 72 h. This motion is expected to bring the center near or over the coasts of Nicaragua or Honduras near the 72-h point. After that time, a west-southwestward motion is forecast, with the center of the cyclone moving across portions of Central America. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast, and it lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the various consensus models. Iota is currently experiencing light westerly wind shear produced by an upper-level trough to the west. The shear should subside over the next 12-24 h as the trough moves westward and dissipates, leaving the cyclone in more favorable upper-level winds and over sea surface temperatures near 29C. Thus, conditions appear conducive for steady to rapid intensification once the storm becomes well enough organized internally to take advantage of the favorable environment. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for rapid intensification to major hurricane intensity, with a peak intensity of near 105 kt as the system makes landfall in Central America. It should be noted that the HWRF and HMON forecast the center to go north of the official forecast track and keep it over water north of Honduras. As a result, they forecast a stronger cyclone than indciated by the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 13.5N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-11-14 09:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-11-14 09:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 806 WTNT45 KNHC 140836 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 Nearly all of the deep convection associated with Theta has dissipated since the previous advisory, with only cold, high cirrus clouds remaining in the northeastern quadrant. A late-arriving 13/2255Z partial ASCAT-C pass indicated a few 35-kt wind vectors were present in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, which is consistent the latest TAFB current intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt. The initial motion estimate is due east, or 090/08 kt. Theta is expected to move eastward along the northern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours or so, a motion that will also be accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. By 36 hours, a much weaker and more vertically shallow Theta is forecast to turn sharply northward ahead of a frontal system. In the 48-72 hour period, the weakening cyclone expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of the front, passing to the north of the Canary Islands this weekend. Theta is forecast to dissipate by 96 hours near the Madeira Island. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus model TVCN. Strong shear in excess of 35 kt currently affecting Theta is forecast to steadily increase to more than 40 kt by 12 h and beyond. In addition, entrainment of very dry mid-level air should combine with the increasing shear and prevent the reformation of persistent organized deep convection near the center. Although the global models show that some marginal instability is expected to linger through the forecast period, only intermittent small bursts of modest convection away from the center could develop. However, the general trend in the model guidance calls for Theta to slowly spin down, and the official intensity forecast follows that scenario, calling for the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low later today, then becoming extratropical before dissipating in 3-4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 32.0N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 31.8N 19.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 15/1800Z 32.2N 17.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 16/1800Z 34.9N 16.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/0600Z 37.2N 15.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-11-14 09:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 20.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 20.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 21.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.8N 19.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.8N 18.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.2N 17.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.9N 16.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.2N 15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 20.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Satellite images show that Iota has changed little during the past several hours. Deep convection is organized in fragmented bands around the center, except in the northwestern quadrant where there is a dry slot. All of the satellite intensity estimates are around 35 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. Iota has been drifting to the south-southwest during the past several hours, however, the steering currents are expected to become more pronounced soon. A strong and sprawling mid-level ridge currently centered over the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward and build to the north of the tropical cyclone. Since this ridging is expected to remain well established to the north of Iota during the next several days, a general westward motion is expected through the forecast period. The NHC track forecast takes the core of Iota to the Nicaragua and Honduras coasts in about 3 days. However, conditions are expected to deteriorate along that part of the coast before the center arrives. The latest models are in fairly good agreement, except for the HWRF which is a northern outlier, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is a little slower than the previous one. An upper-level trough to the west of Iota is expected to move west and dissipate on Saturday. This should leave the storm in favorable conditions of 29-30 C waters, and in an air mass of low wind shear and high moisture this weekend and early next week. These conditions support steady to possibly rapid intensification until Iota makes landfall. The main question is how strong will Iota become before it crosses the coast. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 55 percent chance of Iota strengthening 65 kt or more before it makes landfall, which is about 11 times the climatological mean. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and shows Iota strengthening to a major hurricane in about 60 hours. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Saturday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta's recent effects there. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 13.6N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.7N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 14.0N 77.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 14.3N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 14.5N 81.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 14.7N 82.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0000Z 14.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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