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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-11-14 21:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 19.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 240SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 19.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 19.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.7N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.1N 14.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 19.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 690 WTNT41 KNHC 141457 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Recent microwave satellite imagery and early morning visible pictures show that Iota remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the center located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and recent satellite estimates. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iota early this afternoon. Somewhat surprisingly Iota has not strengthened much since yesterday, which appears to be the result of some unexpected shear and its close proximity to the northwest coast of Colombia. The global models predict that the shear will relax soon, and that the system will be in quite favorable conditions for strengthening. The NHC forecast again calls for steady to rapid strengthening in the next 12-60 h once the storm organizes enough to take advantage of the expected favorable conditions. The updated NHC intensity is similar to the previous forecast and shows Iota at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. Although the center of Iota was relocated to the south and west of the earlier estimates, the long-term initial motion estimate is 255/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to build eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move westward to west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. This should bring the center near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras in 2 to 3 days. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected with Iota moving inland over Central America. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward, especially in the first 24 to 36 hours due to the more southward initial position. The NHC track lies close to the TVCA multi-model consensus, which is between the lastest global model interpolated trackers and the model fields. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 12.7N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 12.9N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 13.4N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 13.9N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 14.4N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 13.5N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141457 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * PROVIDENCIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 76.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 76.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 75.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 12.9N 76.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.4N 78.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.9N 80.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 83.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 76.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 141457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 Theta's center continues to be devoid of deep convection as dry air entrains into the system's circulation. The edge of the only nearby surviving convection is located about 60 n mi to the southeast of the cyclone's center due to increasing northwesterly shear. A recent ASCAT overpass showed a fair amount of wind vectors of 30-34 kt, therefore the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The shear is expected to increase even more today, and the surrounding environment is forecast to dry out further. These factors, that should persist for at least the next few days, should prevent any new convection from developing near the center of Theta. The latest NHC forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low in 12 h and dissipate in 72 h, as the circulation gradually spins down. The storm is now moving just south of due east around 7 kt as it is steered along the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, which will cause Theta to slow its forward motion. Early next week, increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front should pick up the remnants of Theta and accelerate them northward, and then northeastward. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.8N 20.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 31.6N 19.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1200Z 31.7N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 32.4N 17.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 36.1N 16.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 141456 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.4N 17.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 20.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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