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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 51
2020-11-13 03:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 220 WTNT24 KNHC 130243 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 79.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-11-12 21:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 The appearance and structure of Theta has changed little today, with intermittent bursts of convection wrapping mostly around the center of circulation. There has been no new observational data since last night, and it is still assumed that the cyclone's intensity remains a somewhat uncertain 55 kt due to the consistency of its appearance. Theta's motion over the past 12 h is 090/10 kt as the cyclone continues to be steered around the north side of a mid-level ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast has changed little from the previous one and remains near the multi-model consensus tracks. The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the next day or so, while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. These counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity during that time. By this weekend, strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.7N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 31.8N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 31.8N 23.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 31.5N 21.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 31.2N 20.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 31.1N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 31.4N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z 38.4N 15.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-11-12 21:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 122045 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 27.4W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 130SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 540SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 27.4W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 28.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.8N 25.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 23.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.5N 21.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.2N 20.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.1N 19.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.4N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 38.4N 15.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 27.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 50
2020-11-12 21:43:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 122043 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the center of Eta moved off the Georgia coast around 18z, a little farther north than previously anticipated. The satellite presentation of the storm has become quite ragged with the primary convective band located well east of the center. The circulation has also become more elongated, with the strongest winds occurring east of the center over the Atlantic waters. Based on the continued degradation of Eta's organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 35 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated through early Friday due to moderate to strong westerly shear. The UKMET and ECMWF models continue to show some re-intensification of the system as an extratropical low by late Friday, and that is what is indicated in the official foreast. A plausible alternative scenario that is favored by the GFS is for the circulation to become elongated and dissipate along an approaching frontal boundary on Friday. Eta is moving northeastward at about 16 kt. The cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so ahead of a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move across the Great Lakes Region and approach the northeastern United States on Friday. Only slight modifications to the previous official forecast were required, and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models. Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across portions of eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic coast is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.6N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 50
2020-11-12 21:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122040 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 80.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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