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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140240 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 74.1W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 74.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 76.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.0N 77.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.3N 79.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 81.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.7N 82.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 85.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.3N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 74.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-11-14 03:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140234 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 21.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 420SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 21.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 22.1W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.8N 20.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 18.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 17.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.3N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.9N 16.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 21.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-13 21:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132044 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the cyclone's circulation have increased since this morning, and the overall organization of the system continues to quickly improve. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that there was a fairly large area of light winds near the center, and that the low-level center was displaced to the northwest of the mid-level center seen in visible satellite imagery. Since the system is still in its formative stage, the low-level center may reform closer to the mid-level feature, and the advisory position is a compromise between the low- and mid-level circulations. The earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of around 30 kt with several higher rain-inflated vectors. Based on the continued increase in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt. Iota becomes the 30th named storm of the recording-breaking 2020 hurricane season. The environment ahead of Iota appears to be quite conducive for intensification. The system will be moving over warm waters, in a moist atmosphere, and within an area of very low vertical wind shear. As a result, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Iota to reach hurricane status within 36 h, and now calls for the system to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. The NHC intensity foreast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, and the 70-kt increase in intensity over the next 72 hours is supported by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index that shows a nearly 60 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity during that time period. The tropical storm has not moved very much today, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 255/3 kt. A strong mid-level ridge that extends across Florida and the western Atlantic is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days causing the cyclone to move faster toward the west or west-northwestward. The track guidance has come into a bit better agreement this afternoon, with only the HWRF showing a track farther north over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous official forecast, and no significant adjustments to the earlier track forecast were required. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight or early Saturday. 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-13 21:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 132043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 74.3W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 74.3W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 74.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 74.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-11-13 21:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 Theta appears to be holding its own still, with a large curved band feature characterizing the bulk of the deep convection, and a smaller area of convection intermittently developing over the center. Like yesterday, there has been a lack of observational data over the system's core since last night. However, since Theta's organization has not appeared to change much since that time, the initial intensity is being kept at a somewhat uncertain 50 kt. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity into tonight as the cyclone continues moving in a relatively low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week. Theta is moving eastward at around 9 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing of the forward motion is expected overnight and continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region. The NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various consensus aids. On the forecast track, the center of Theta is forecast to track very near the westernmost Canary Islands. However, the system is forecast to weaken to a remnant low before reaching those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 31.9N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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