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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Forecast Discussion Number 52

2020-11-13 09:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130834 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 While the cyclone is still generating a cluster of strong convection to the northeast of the center, satellite imagery, surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that Eta has merged with a baroclinic zone and become an extratropical cyclone off the southeastern coast of the United States. The scatterometer data showed vectors of 40-50 kt along a front or convergence zone northeast of the center, but these vectors were in the strong convective region and their reliability is uncertain. This, the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 40 kt. Eta is forecast to strengthen as a baroclinic low until the system is absorbed by another low pressure area in about 48 h. The initial motion is 060/18. The post-tropical cyclone cyclone should continue this general motion with an increase in forward speed until it is absorbed. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Eta. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 33.3N 76.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Forecast Advisory Number 52

2020-11-13 09:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130833 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 76.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-11-13 03:52:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 121 WTNT45 KNHC 130252 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 The structure of Theta has been waxing and waning today with moderate convection attempting to wrap around the center, though the coldest cloud tops have been decaying before wrapping fully around. Earlier, there was a 2222 UTC partial ASCAT-B pass that showed peak winds of 40-45 kt on the south side of Theta. However the highest winds from this instrument the previous two nights were in the southwest quadrant and it is estimated that higher winds may still exist in this quadrant of Theta. For this reason, the latest intensity estimate is only adjusted downward to 50 kt for this advisory. Theta continues to track east at 090/12 kt as the system remains steered by flow along the north side of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to gradually weaken over the next 24-36 h and Theta is forecast to bend to the east-southeast as the cyclone becomes more influenced by mid-level northerly flow associated with an upstream ridge building to the northwest. After 36 h, Theta is expected to slow down significantly as it becomes a shallow cyclone in light low-level flow. Finally, low-level southerly flow ahead of a mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to steer Theta's remnant low northeastward by the end of the forecast. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit southward for the first part of the forecast, and the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly further south, close to the reliable ICVN consensus. Thus far, Theta has been struggling to produce deep convection that has successfully wrapped around its center. While Vertical Wind Shear is forecast to decrease per ECMWF-SHIPS guidance over the next 12-24 h, it remains to be seen if the current degree of instability is enough for Theta to take advantage of the more conducive wind environment. Thereafter, Vertical Wind Shear increases sharply from the north, importing a much more stable environment over Theta. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains the current 50 kt intensity over the next 24 h with weakening forecasted thereafter, in general agreement with the latest intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 31.7N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 31.7N 24.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 31.4N 22.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 31.0N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 30.8N 19.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 30.8N 18.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 31.2N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z 34.3N 18.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-11-13 03:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130248 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 26.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 26.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 26.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.7N 24.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.4N 22.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.0N 20.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.8N 19.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.8N 18.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.2N 18.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.3N 18.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 26.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 51

2020-11-13 03:44:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130244 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation of Eta is becoming stretched as it interacts with a frontal boundary just to its west. Deep convection is mostly confined to the northern side of the system and in patches associated with its trailing trough. Since buoy 41004 off the South Carolina coast recently reported sustained winds of 37 kt, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt for this advisory. The models show the circulation of Eta continuing to lose definition overnight, and it is possible that the tropical storm will open up into a trough soon. Whatever is left of Eta will merge with the nearby front on Friday, causing it to transition into an extratropical cyclone. The non-tropical low is then forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the north Atlantic. Eta, or its remnants, will likely strengthen slightly before it dissipates on Saturday due to the predicted faster forward speed and baroclinic influences. Eta is moving northeastward at 15 kt. An even faster motion to the northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. This should take Eta, or its remnants, gradually away from the southeast U.S. coast. Deep-layer moisture partly associated with Eta has spread northward along a frontal boundary across eastern North Carolina and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 32.3N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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