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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-11-13 21:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 480SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 23.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 22.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Thirty-One Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-11-13 16:05:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 131504 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Thirty-One Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Corrected the time from EDT to EST Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea has increased and become more concentrated since yesterday. One-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation has also become better defined, with a westerly component seen in the low-cloud motion near the southwestern edge of the primary convective mass. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0, indicating that the convection has become sufficiently organized for the system to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, in line with the Dvorak classifications. Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification over the next few days. Given the current broad and sprawling structure of the system, strengthening may begin as gradual today, but once an inner core organizes, steady-to-rapid strengthening appears likely. While the SHIPS rapid intensification index does not show very high chances of rapid strengthening for any one 24-h period over the next few days, it does indicate a 50/50 chance (nearly 10 times the climatological mean) of a 65-kt increase in wind speed over the next 72 hours. As a result, the NHC forecast calls for significant strengthening during the 24 to 72 hour time period, and the system could approach the coast of Central America as a major hurricane in a few days. The NHC track forecast at days 4 and 5 shows the system weakening over land, however some of the track guidance keeps the system just off the coast on Honduras at that time. If a more northern track occurs, the system could be stronger at 96 and 120 h if it remains over water. The depression is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. A strong mid-level ridge that lies over Florida and the western Atlantic should steer the cyclone west-southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to begin sliding eastward, and a westward to west-northwestward motion should begin. On the foreast track, the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of Central America in 60-72 h. The track guidance is in good agreement through the first couple of days, but there is increasing cross-track spread after that time. The HMON, HWRF, and GFS show a track near or north of the coast of Honduras after 72 hours, while the ECMWF and UKMET are farther south. For now, the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the TCVA multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane while it approaches the coast of Central America, and there is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight. 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Thirty-One may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-11-13 15:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131456 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 Satellite images and microwave data this morning are showing that Theta finally has a more classic appearance of a tropical storm. There is a warming of cloud tops over the center, with a curved band of convection wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation. The scatterometer overpasses missed the core of the cyclone this morning. However, since the cloud pattern has not degraded since the previous advisory, the intensity is being held at 50 kt for this advisory. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity today as the cyclone continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week. Theta continues to move eastward at around 10 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing of the forward motion is expected later today and continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region. The NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 31.7N 23.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 31.5N 22.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 31.3N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 31.0N 19.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 31.1N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 31.3N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z 32.8N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 37.4N 15.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-11-13 09:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130838 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 A fortuitous 0348 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that Theta's surface center was a little to the north of the previous advisory position. The image also indicated that the coldest brightness temperatures were located in the northeast quadrant which sort of conflicts with the earlier scatterometer data showing the stronger surface winds in the southeast quadrant. More than likely though, these winds are being produced by the pressure gradient of the cyclone and a mid-level ridge to the southeast. Since the cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours and the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB hasn't either, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 12 hours or so as the cyclone continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. On Saturday, the trough migrates south of Theta, while strong northerly shear and a more stable air mass intrude from the northwest to north. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by mid next week. Theta has been moving eastward during the last 12 hours within the mid-level troposphere steering current provided by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. The short term motion, however, already appears to be the anticipated to the right of track motion, or toward the east-southeast. Regardless, this general motion along with a reduction in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days as a more vertically shallow Theta is influenced by the low-level flow. By day 3, the remnants of Theta are expected to turn rather sharply northward and continue in this general motion in response to an approaching deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone from the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one through the 72 hour period, then adjusted to the right to align more with the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 31.9N 24.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 31.7N 23.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 31.4N 21.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 31.1N 19.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 30.9N 18.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 31.1N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z 32.1N 18.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z 36.0N 17.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-11-13 09:36:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130836 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 24.9W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 540SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 24.9W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 25.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.7N 23.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.4N 21.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.1N 19.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.9N 18.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.1N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.1N 18.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 36.0N 17.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 24.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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