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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-11-07 21:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 072054 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Eta had strengthened to 50 kt with a central pressure of 994 mb. Since that time, the storm organization is unchanged in satellite imagery, while the central convection looks a little more ragged in radar data from Grand Cayman Island and Cuba. Eta is currently being affected by 25-35 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, and water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air approaching the inner core from the west. The initial motion now 050/14. There is little change to the forecast philosophy through the first 96 h of the forecast. A mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should steer Eta northeastward for the next 12 h or so, which would bring the center near or over the coast of central Cuba. Then from 12-96 h, the trough should cut off into a closed low near western Cuba, with Eta turning northward and eventually westward near the Florida Keys and south Florida as it merges with the low. The track guidance has shifted a little to the west over Cuba and a little to the south near Florida, possibly in response to data from the G-IV jet mission earlier today, and the new track forecast does likewise. The track guidance becomes quite divergent after 96 h, and the 96-120 h motion is now slower than the previous forecast as a result. The intensity forecast is tricky. Strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough is allowing the cyclone to strengthen. However, at some time in the next 24-48 h the shear and dry air entrainment should prevent any further strengthening. The intensity guidance shows a little intensification during the next 24-36 h with the bulk of the guidance peaking near 60 kt. After that time, the dry air should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is increased a bit from the previous forecast to show a 60-kt intensity at 24 and 36 h. This requires issuing a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys and portions of south Florida. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba, and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for a few more hours in portions of the Cayman Islands, and are expected tonight and Sunday in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected Sunday night, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect. 4. A life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 20.4N 80.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 21.6N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 23.3N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 09/0600Z 24.7N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 25.2N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 25.7N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 26.1N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-11-07 21:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 072053 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO GOLDEN BEACH...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND WEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 80.7W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 80.7W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.6N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.3N 79.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 79.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 81.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.7N 82.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.1N 83.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 80.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-11-07 19:00:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071800 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Special Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 This special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of the intensity forecast of Eta. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a better defined center north of the Cayman Islands with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an initial intensity of 50 kt, along with a central pressure of 994 mb. The updated intensity forecast shows a little more intensification during the first 12 h, although it is unclear how much intensification may occur due to strong vertical shear and interaction with a developing upper-level low nearby. No changes were made to the forecast track. The first 36 h of the wind radii were adjusted for the new intensity forecast. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 100 PM EST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life- threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be needed later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1800Z 20.0N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-11-07 18:58:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 566 WTNT24 KNHC 071758 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1800 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.1W AT 07/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.1W AT 07/1800Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 81.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-11-07 16:16:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071515 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CORRECTED FORMATTING OF INITIAL 34 KT WINDS. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. * FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 81.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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