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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 42

2020-11-10 21:49:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 102049 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.1N 84.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 84.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.9N 84.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.9N 84.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.7N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.1N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 29.7N 84.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 30.7N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 85.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-11-10 21:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 102037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 A central dense overcast has persisted near the center of Theta since yesterday, and although the clouds tops have warmed over the past several hours there remains a distinct curved band feature over the northern portion of the circulation. Water vapor imagery shows the mid- upper-level trough that was over the Azores is beginning to leave the cyclone behind. Based on these factors, and the earlier indications of a compact radius of maximum winds, it appears that Theta has completed a transition to a tropical cyclone. Even though the clouds tops have recently warmed, the overall structure of Theta has not degraded by much since the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 60 kt. The storm is moving 075/12 kt around the north side of a mid-level ridge. This feature should continue to steer Theta in a generally east-northeastward motion for the next few days. Late in the forecast period, the ridge will begin to weaken as another trough approaches from the northwest. This should cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion and begin to turn to the northeast. The latest model guidance has once again slowed down and the new NHC track forecast now lies between the previous one and the various consensus models. Although Theta will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable for the next day or so, which should be supportive of deep convection. Therefore, little change is strength is indicated during that time. Some weakening is anticipated later in the forecast period as the airmass becomes more stable. By the end of the 5-day forecast period, the combination of the cooler waters and an approaching trough should result in extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one and remains near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 29.4N 36.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 29.8N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 30.3N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 30.8N 30.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 32.1N 25.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 32.6N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 33.2N 20.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 34.4N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-11-10 21:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 102033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 36.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 36.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 36.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.8N 34.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.3N 32.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.8N 30.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N 25.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.6N 23.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.2N 20.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.4N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 36.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Report: US Oil Production to Decline More than Previously Forecast in 2020

2020-11-10 19:30:00| OGI

Overall, U.S. crude oil production in the U.S. in 2021 is expected to fall by 290,000 bbl/d to 11.1 million bbl/d, compared with the EIA's previous forecast for a decline of 360,000 bbl/d.

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 41

2020-11-10 15:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 101455 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 A significant increase in deep convection has occurred since the previous advisory this morning, including a CDO-like feature with cloud tops of -85C to -87C very near the low-level center. However, recent passive microwave satellite images indicate that the center is displaced to the northwest of the coldest cloud tops due to modest northwesterly mid- and upper-level vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is based on an average of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. Although the initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt, Eta has essentially been stationary for the past 9 hours or so. Radar data from Casablanca, Cuba, and satellite fixes suggest that Eta has been making a small cyclonic/counter-clockwise loop within the larger gyre in which the small center is embedded. Until the gyre breaks down or moves northward, there will be little poleward motion by Eta today. By tonight, however, the global and regional models are in good agreement on a broad mid-tropospheric trough moving eastward across the central and eastern United States, which is expected to erode a subtropical ridge to the north of the Eta, allowing both the larger gyre and Eta to move slowly northward. This steering pattern is expected to continue through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the model guidance diverges significantly between motions ranging from westward (GFS/GFS-ensemble) to northward (ECMWF) to northeastward (COAMPS-TC). The 96-120 hour motions are directly related to the strength of the cyclone, with a much weaker Eta forecast to move westward and a stronger hurricane solution moving northeastward. The latter scenario seems unlikely given that the vertical shear is forecast to increase from the northwest and west at more than 25 kt, which acts to weaken Eta and also impart a slight eastward tug on the system. As a result, the official forecast track calls for Eta to basically move slowly northward through the 120-h forecast period and gradually weaken into a shallow cyclone that drifts northward. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, NOAA-HCCA, and the Florida Superensemble (FSSE). Eta is expected to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear environment and over warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C for the next couple of days. Although the surrounding environment is expected to be somewhat dry, the other two favorable environmental factors should allow for some strengthening into Thursday, Thereafter, increasing shear from the northwest and west, along with drier mid-level air and cooler SSTs are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening remains uncertain, and depends heavily on how much Eta re-intensifies over the next couple of days. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and is a little below the consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, all of which make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba. 2. Eta could approach the northeastern or north-central U.S. Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 22.7N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 23.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.9N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 26.6N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 27.2N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 28.6N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 30.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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