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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 36

2020-11-09 09:38:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090838 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......270NE 100SE 30SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.8N 84.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 85.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.8N 85.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.7N 84.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.8N 84.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 29.4N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 35

2020-11-09 03:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Although deep convection has waned near the center of Eta since this afternoon, radar imagery continues to show a ring of low-topped convection around the center, with some deep convection returning over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Doppler radar velocities of 64-68 kt around 5000 ft, and recent NOAA reconnaissance aircraft observations support maintaining the 55 kt initial intensity. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of around 993 mb. Since Eta has a fairly large radius of maximum winds and a dry slot that has wrapped into the inner core, it appears that any short-term strengthening should be slow to occur. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for a little less strengthening until Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. Regardless of whether Eta becomes a hurricane near the Florida Keys, there is little difference in impacts between a 55-to-60-kt tropical storm and a 65-kt hurricane. After 24 hours, Eta is forecast to move over warmer sea surface temperatures in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical shear is forecast to decrease. This is expected to allow for some strengthening and Eta is forecast re-gain hurricane strengthen by Tuesday. Gradual weakening is predicted between 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS/LGEM models during the first couple of days, and in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model thereafter. Eta has turned northwestward this evening around the north side of a cut-off low located just south of western Cuba. The tropical cyclone should turn west-northwestward to westward overnight, and a southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday as Eta pivots around the upper-low. In 36-48 h, Eta is expected to slow down and possibly stall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as the steering currents weakening. In about 3 days, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. The models that maintain Eta has a deeper system show a faster northeastward motion late in the period, whereas models that weaken Eta slow its northward progression by day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the model consensus at 96 and 120 h, and is similar to the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in Cuba, and significant flash and urban flooding are possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away from Eta's center across the southern and central portions of the Florida peninsula. 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 4. Eta is forecast to approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and could bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.9N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 24.2N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 25.5N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 26.6N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 30.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 35

2020-11-09 03:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 80.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......270NE 100SE 30SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 80.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N 82.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 100SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.2N 84.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 84.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.6N 84.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.2N 83.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 80.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 34

2020-11-08 21:58:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 150 WTNT24 KNHC 082058 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 CORRECTED TO SHOW DISCONTINUED WARNINGS FOR CUBA CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. THE STORM SURGE WATCH NORTH OF CARD SOUND BRIDGE TO GOLDEN BEACH, FL INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY, CIEGO DE AVILA, SANCTI SPIRITUS, VILLA CLARA, CIENFUEGOS, AND MATANZAS SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 30SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 81.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 85.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 85.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.8N 84.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.1N 84.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 34

2020-11-08 21:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 082057 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Eta's appearance in radar and satellite imagery has changed little since the previous advisory and the last reconnaissance mission a few hours ago, with a ragged mid-level eye-like feature briefly wrapping up for less than an hour before quickly decaying. Average velocity values from the Miami, Florida, NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar have occasionally been as high as 60 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft ASL to the north and northeast of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta around 0000Z this evening. The initial motion estimate is 325/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast reasoning from the last 36 hours. Eta is now moving northwestward around the northeastern side of an upper-level low that has formed over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. The combined easterly flow between the upper-low and a deep-layer ridge located near the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast is expected to force Eta westward overnight and then turn the cyclone slowly southwestward in the 24-48 hour period, with the cyclone possibly stalling just west of the lower Florida Keys when steering currents collapse around 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough is forecast to move from the U.S. west coast eastward over the central U.S. by 96 hours, and then over the eastern U.S. by 120 hours, which will erode the western portion of the ridge and act to gradually lift Eta northeastward toward northern Florida. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted slightly northward, possibly due to the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft synoptic track dropsonde observations from earlier this morning, and now shows the center of Eta making landfall in the middle or lower Florida Keys late tonight and early Monday. The new NHC official track forecast has been nudged northward close to the consensus models HCCA and TCVA. It should be noted that although the latest model guidance and track forecast shows landfall in the Florida Keys, the strongest winds are occurring, and are expected to occur, well to the north and east of the center. Satellite imagery indicates that a pronounced dry slot has wrapped into the eastern portion of Eta's circulation, with radar data suggesting that it has occasionally penetrated into the inner core region as well, eroding the thunderstorm activity in the southern portion of the aforementioned eye-like feature. However, with the vertical shear forecast to steadily decrease from the current 25 kt down to less than 10 kt by 24 hours while Eta is moving over 28.5 deg C SSTs, strengthening is expected late tonight during the convective maximum period and continuing into Monday, resulting in Eta intensifying into a hurricane during that time. Environmental conditions are expected to remain somewhat favorable for Eta to maintain hurricane status through 60 hours, followed by gradual weakening from 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear of 20-25 kt and entrainment of very dry mid-level air. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory, and remains above the model guidance through 36 hours and is a little below the guidance thereafter. Based on ASCAT data and surface observations, the wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast quadrants. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away from Eta's center across the southern and central portions of the Florida peninsula. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and will spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life- threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Significant flash and urban flooding are also possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 23.9N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.7N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 25.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 25.8N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 27.1N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 29.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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